Home price growth fell again in September, with the result that RE Metrics’ estimate for September home prices (US 10-City Index) is negative 0.5%, down from the 0.4% monthly decrease in August. According to RE Metrics’ model, prices declined by 1.0% in San Diego, and by 0.9% in San Francisco and Denver. Chicago was the only metro with positive growth, posting a 0.1% monthly increase. Washington, DC was next in line, with 0% growth in September. New York ranked third with a 0.1% monthly decline.
Most metros experienced weaker growth in September compared to August. The largest month-to-month declines in the pace of growth occurred in Las Vegas (-0.7%), Chicago (-0.4%) and San Diego (-0.4%). Over the last three months, the most slowing occurred in San Diego (-1.6%), Los Angeles (-1.4%) and Las Vegas (-1.3%).
(Note: the major metro areas covered here are the 10 components of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index. September results are due to be published on November 26th.)
Review of August Predictions
The predicted growth rates for August performed well overall. For the 10-city composite index, the forecast was within 3 basis points of the actual (predicted -0.385% vs. actual -0.356%). At the metro area level, the forecasted growth rates were within 0.1% of the actual result for 8 of the 10 metro areas. The widest spreads between predicted and actual were in Chicago (-0.6% spread) and Washington, DC (-0.3% spread). See the chart below for comparisons for each metro and the 10-City Composite Home Price Index.
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